Jewish Community Safety Index

Comprehensive Country Assessment • Seven Pillar Framework

SPOTLIGHT
🇧🇷
BRAZIL
December 2025
52
CONCERNING
⚠️ DETERIORATING GOVERNMENT RELATIONS: President Lula's comparison of Israel to Nazi Germany, Brazil's withdrawal from IHRA (July 2025), and downgraded diplomatic relations with Israel mark a significant shift in official posture toward the Jewish community. Antisemitic incidents increased 961% post-Oct 7, 2023.

Seven Pillar Summary

# Pillar Weight Score Assessment
P1 Legal & Government Framework 10% 58 Moderate – Strong racism laws but no envoy; IHRA withdrawn
P2 Security Infrastructure 10% 55 Moderate – Limited dedicated funding; community self-reliant
P3 Criminal Justice Outcomes 10% 48 Concerning – Significant enforcement gaps; data deficiencies
P4 Threat Environment 18% 42 Concerning – 961% spike post-Oct 7; foiled terror plots
P5 Movement Ecosystem 15% 52 Moderate – Hezbollah presence in TBA; limited HuT
P6 Cultural & Societal Climate 15% 45 Concerning – Government hostility to Israel; minimal BDS
P7 Lived Experience & Community Voice 22% 62 Moderate – Historically integrated; growing anxiety

✓ CRITICAL STRENGTHS

  • Gun Control (70/100): Strict Disarmament Statute 2003; Lula tightened 2023
  • Constitutional Protection: Racism imprescriptible crime since 1988
  • Historical Integration: 500+ years Jewish presence; well-assimilated
  • Low Baseline Antisemitism: 25% on ADL Global 100 (2019)
  • Strong Community Institutions: CONIB, Hebraicas, Albert Einstein Hospital
  • Evangelical Support: Pro-Israel parliamentary caucus

✗ CRITICAL VULNERABILITIES

  • Government Hostility: Lula's Holocaust comparison; persona non grata
  • IHRA Withdrawal: Brazil left IHRA July 2025
  • Diplomatic Crisis: Downgraded Israel relations; no ambassador
  • TBA Terror Nexus: Hezbollah/IRGC presence in Tri-Border Area
  • Incident Surge: 961% increase post-Oct 7; 886 cases Jan-May 2024
  • No Dedicated Envoy: No antisemitism coordinator appointed
FORMULA: Spotlight = (58×0.10) + (55×0.10) + (48×0.10) + (42×0.18) + (52×0.15) + (45×0.15) + (62×0.22) = 52/100

Assessment Period: October 2023 – December 2025 | Seven Pillar Framework | Report Date: December 2025

Brazil Spotlight – Detailed Assessment

📊 DEMOGRAPHIC CONTEXT (Reference Data – Not Scored)

Indicator Measurement Source
Jewish population ~120,000 (0.06% of total) CONIB/Census
Muslim population ~35,000-1.5M (disputed) Census 2010/FAMBRAS
Muslim:Jewish ratio ~0.3:1 to 12:1 (disputed) Calculated
Geographic concentration ~70% in São Paulo/Rio de Janeiro CONIB
Geographic overlap Low – Distinct communities Analysis

PILLAR 1: Legal & Government Framework (10%)

58/100

1.1 Government Leadership on Antisemitism (25%)

25/100
Indicator Measurement Score Source
Special Envoy for Antisemitism No – No dedicated position 0 Govt Records
Envoy empowered to propose legislation N/A – No envoy exists 0 N/A
Envoy empowered to set/influence policy N/A – No envoy exists 0 N/A
National action plan on antisemitism No – None published 0 Govt Records
IHRA Membership Status Withdrawn (July 2025) – Former observer 10 IHRA

1.2 Hate Crime & Discrimination Laws (25%)

82/100
Indicator Measurement Score Source
National hate crime legislation exists Yes – Constitution Art. 5 (1988); Law 7.716 (1989) 90 Constitution
Antisemitism legally defined Via racism laws – Ellwanger precedent (2003) 80 STF
Holocaust denial criminalized Via racism laws – STF affirmed 75 Courts
Racism imprescriptible Yes – Constitution Art. 5 XLII 95 Constitution
Nazi symbols banned Limited – No specific law; some prosecutions 60 Legal Analysis

1.3 Gun Control & Weapons Regulation (20%)

70/100
Indicator Measurement Score Source
Gun accessibility restrictions Strict – Disarmament Statute 2003; Lula tightened 2023 75 Legislation
Firearms per capita ~8.3 per 100 people (moderate) 65 Small Arms Survey
Recent policy direction Tightening – Lula reversed Bolsonaro loosening 75 Govt Policy
Mass casualty attack history No antisemitic mass casualties 85 Analysis

1.4 International Obligations & Terror Designations (30%)

55/100
Indicator Measurement Score Source
Hamas designated as terrorist org No – No formal designation 0 Government
Hezbollah fully designated No – No formal designation 0 Government
Diplomatic relations with Israel Downgraded – Ambassador recalled; persona non grata 25 MFA
ICJ genocide case stance Joined South Africa's case against Israel 20 ICJ
Counter-terrorism framework General framework exists – 2016 law 60 Legislation
PILLAR 1 CALCULATION: (25×0.25) + (82×0.25) + (70×0.20) + (55×0.30) = 58/100

PILLAR 2: Security Infrastructure (10%)

55/100

2.1 Physical Security Resources (40%)

55/100
Indicator Measurement Score Source
Dedicated security funding Limited – Community primarily self-funded 45 CONIB
Police presence at Jewish sites Variable – Enhanced during holidays/alerts 55 Police
Physical hardening support Limited state support; community investment 50 Community
Dec 2023 plot response Foiled attack – Shows capability but also threat 60 Federal Police

2.2 Jewish Community Security Organization (35%)

55/100
Indicator Measurement Score Source
National security organization exists CONIB security division – Community-led 55 CONIB
Professional staff & resources Moderate – Less than CST model 50 Analysis
Training programs offered Yes – Community and institutional training 60 CONIB
Real-time threat intelligence Limited – Some government sharing 50 Analysis

2.3 Government-Community Coordination (25%)

55/100
Indicator Measurement Score Source
Joint threat assessment mechanism Limited – Ad hoc basis; strained relations 45 Analysis
Incident reporting system CONIB monitoring; government gaps 55 CONIB
Emergency response protocols Federal Police capable; coordination variable 60 Federal Police
PILLAR 2 CALCULATION: (55×0.40) + (55×0.35) + (55×0.25) = 55/100

PILLAR 3: Criminal Justice Outcomes (10%)

48/100

3.1 Investigation & Prosecution (40%)

45/100
Indicator Measurement Score Source
Hate crime prosecution rate Low – Many cases dropped or downgraded 40 Courts
Specialized hate crime units Some – Not nationwide 45 Police
Case downgrading practice Common – "Injury" vs. racism charges 35 Legal Analysis
Terror plot prosecution Dec 2023 plot arrests – Proceeding 55 Federal Police

3.2 Data Collection & Reporting (35%)

50/100
Indicator Measurement Score Source
Civil society documentation Strong – CONIB tracks comprehensively 75 CONIB
Official statistics collection Limited – Government data gaps 40 Government
Data disaggregation Limited – Antisemitism not always separate 45 Analysis
International reporting Variable – IHRA withdrawal impacts 40 IHRA

3.3 Judicial Response & Sentencing (25%)

50/100
Indicator Measurement Score Source
Ellwanger precedent Strong – 2003 STF affirmed antisemitism is racism 80 STF
Sentencing patterns Variable – Inconsistent application 45 Courts
Appeals outcomes Mixed – Some reduced on appeal 45 Courts
PILLAR 3 CALCULATION: (45×0.40) + (50×0.35) + (50×0.25) = 48/100

PILLAR 4: Threat Environment (18%)

42/100

4.1 Physical Violence & Attacks (40%)

45/100
Indicator Measurement Score Source
Recent terror plots Dec 2023 plot foiled – Hezbollah-linked; Jewish targets 35 Federal Police
Physical assaults Rising – Incidents increased post-Oct 7 45 CONIB
Mass casualty attacks None – No antisemitic mass casualties 85 Analysis
Gun control impact Positive – Strict laws limit capability 70 Analysis

4.2 Incident Volume & Trends (35%)

35/100
Indicator Measurement Score Source
Post-Oct 7 spike 961% increase – Dramatic surge 15 CONIB
Total incidents (Jan-May 2024) 886 cases documented 40 CONIB
Online harassment Significant – Large portion online 40 CONIB
Trend direction Worsening – Sustained high levels 30 Analysis

4.3 Terror & Extremist Threats (25%)

48/100
Indicator Measurement Score Source
Tri-Border Area (TBA) threat Established – Hezbollah/IRGC presence documented 30 Intelligence
Iranian network activity Active – Dec 2023 plot linked to Iran 35 Federal Police
Far-right extremism Present – Neo-Nazi groups active 50 Analysis
Government counterterror stance Complicated – Diplomatic tensions with Israel 55 Analysis
PILLAR 4 CALCULATION: (45×0.40) + (35×0.35) + (48×0.25) = 42/100

PILLAR 5: Movement Ecosystem (15%)

52/100

5.1 Islamist Movement Presence (40%)

45/100
Indicator Measurement Score Source
Hezbollah presence Established – TBA network; fundraising operations 30 Intelligence
IRGC activity Documented – Dec 2023 plot involvement 35 Federal Police
Hizb ut-Tahrir presence Limited – Small Muslim population 70 Analysis
Hamas presence Limited – No significant infrastructure 60 Analysis

5.2 Radical Activist Networks (35%)

60/100
Indicator Measurement Score Source
Protest movement scale Moderate – Some pro-Palestine protests 60 Media
Campus activism Limited – Less than US/Europe 65 Universities
Violence at demonstrations Rare – Generally peaceful 70 Police
BDS activity Low – Only 23% support boycotts (ADL) 77 ADL

5.3 Far-Right/Extremist Movements (25%)

52/100
Indicator Measurement Score Source
Far-right extremist presence Active – Neo-Nazi groups documented 45 Analysis
Online extremism Active – Significant online activity 45 CONIB
Government response Variable – Some prosecutions 55 Courts
PILLAR 5 CALCULATION: (45×0.40) + (60×0.35) + (52×0.25) = 52/100

PILLAR 6: Cultural & Societal Climate (15%)

45/100

6.1 Political Discourse & Leadership (40%)

30/100
Indicator Measurement Score Source
Presidential stance Hostile – Lula's Holocaust comparison; persona non grata 10 Media/Govt
Government condemnation of antisemitism Weak – Limited under current administration 25 Govt Records
IHRA withdrawal impact Negative – Signals reduced commitment 20 IHRA
Evangelical support Strong – Pro-Israel parliamentary caucus 75 Congress

6.2 Public Attitudes & Social Climate (30%)

55/100
Indicator Measurement Score Source
ADL antisemitism index 25% antisemitic attitudes (2019) – Moderate 75 ADL Global 100
BDS support Low – 23% support boycotts 77 ADL
Historical integration Strong – 500+ years; well-assimilated 80 History
Interfaith relations Good – Evangelical alliance; Catholic dialogue 70 Religious Bodies

6.3 Cultural Recognition & Integration (30%)

55/100
Indicator Measurement Score Source
Holocaust education Variable – Some states mandate; not nationwide 55 Education
Jewish heritage recognition Good – Museums; cultural events 65 Culture
Community institutions Strong – CONIB, Hebraicas, Albert Einstein Hospital 75 Community
Government cultural support Limited under current administration 40 Analysis
PILLAR 6 CALCULATION: (30×0.40) + (55×0.30) + (55×0.30) = 45/100

PILLAR 7: Lived Experience & Community Voice (22%)

62/100

7.1 Community Perception of Safety (40%)

55/100
Indicator Measurement Score Source
% who feel safe as Jews Estimated 55-65% (down from ~80%) 55 Community Surveys
% feel antisemitism is serious ~70%+ report increased concern 35 CONIB
% feel situation has worsened ~75% report worsening since Oct 2023 25 Surveys
% trust government protection Estimated 30-40% (declining) 35 Surveys

7.2 Behavioral Adaptation (35%)

65/100
Indicator Measurement Score Source
% who hide Jewish identity Estimated 25-35% in some contexts 65 Community Data
% who avoid Jewish symbols Estimated 30-40% cautious 60 Surveys
% who avoid certain areas Estimated 25-30% avoid some areas 70 Surveys
% considered emigrating Increased aliyah – Record 2015-2016 65 Jewish Agency

7.3 Community Vitality & Protective Factors (25%)

68/100
Indicator Measurement Score Source
General public favorability 25% antisemitic (ADL 2019) – Moderate 75 ADL Global 100
Political representation Good – Some Jewish legislators; access 65 Government
Jewish school enrollment Stable – Strong day school network 70 Education Data
Interfaith solidarity Strong evangelical support 70 Community Reports
PILLAR 7 CALCULATION: (55×0.40) + (65×0.35) + (68×0.25) = 62/100

Key Findings

✓ CRITICAL STRENGTHS

✗ CRITICAL VULNERABILITIES

Final Score Calculation

SPOTLIGHT SCORE FORMULA

Spotlight = (P1×0.10) + (P2×0.10) + (P3×0.10) + (P4×0.18) + (P5×0.15) + (P6×0.15) + (P7×0.22)

Spotlight = (58×0.10) + (55×0.10) + (48×0.10) + (42×0.18) + (52×0.15) + (45×0.15) + (62×0.22)

Spotlight = 5.8 + 5.5 + 4.8 + 7.56 + 7.8 + 6.75 + 13.64 = 52/100
Score Range Classification Brazil
80-100 HIGH SAFETY
60-79 MODERATE SAFETY
40-59 CONCERNING ← BRAZIL (52)
0-39 CRITICAL

Regional & Global Context

Country Spotlight Score Classification Key Factor
Australia 44 Concerning Bondi attack; multi-vector threats
Brazil 52 Concerning Government hostility; IHRA withdrawal
Argentina 59 Concerning Strong govt support; AMIA legacy

Special Assessment: Government Posture Deterioration

CRITICAL CONCERN: Brazil represents a unique case where Jewish community safety is threatened not primarily by societal antisemitism (which remains moderate) but by government-level hostility. The combination of President Lula's Holocaust comparison, IHRA withdrawal, joining the ICJ genocide case against Israel, and downgraded diplomatic relations creates an environment where state protection cannot be assumed. This governmental posture may normalize anti-Jewish sentiment over time.

Spotlight Framework | Seven Pillar Assessment

Assessment Period: October 2023 – December 2025 | Report Date: December 2025

DISCLAIMER: This index provides comparative data for informational purposes. Small score differences (<5 points) may not be statistically meaningful. Brazil's score reflects significant government posture deterioration despite historically good community integration.

Spotlight Research